Overview
The following document provides an initial descriptive analysis and
data coverage overview of the [Annual
Survey of State and Local Government Finances. The data is provided
in a standardised format from Willamette
University. The data is available at a county level between 1970 -
2020 with improved coverage in more recent years. The data has been
cleaned and grouped into 17 expenditure categories (listed in data tree
below), 4 higher-level categories (comprised of the 17 lower-level
categories), and as a county-level total expenditure. All plots are
presented using the raw data, whereas the tables presenting the linear
time trend results include results for both the raw data and linearly
interpolated data.
Data
Expenditure categories
The data is currently structured in county-year pairs with
observations for 17 public expenditure categories. I have manually
grouped these 17 categories into 4 higher categories (that can be
changed/redefined easily!). The tree structure below displays all
categories and groupings. As currently thought out, any or a combination
of these categories will serve as outcome/dependent variables.
## levelName
## 1 Total Public Expenditure
## 2 ¦--Commercial
## 3 ¦ ¦--Air Transportation
## 4 ¦ ¦--Liquor Stores
## 5 ¦ °--Port Facilities
## 6 ¦--Public Welfare, Services & Facilities
## 7 ¦ ¦--Education
## 8 ¦ ¦--Fire Protection
## 9 ¦ ¦--Health & Hospitals
## 10 ¦ ¦--Housing & Community Development
## 11 ¦ ¦--Public Services & Facilities
## 12 ¦ ¦--Public Transit
## 13 ¦ ¦--Public Welfare
## 14 ¦ °--Retirement
## 15 ¦--Administration & Misc.
## 16 ¦ ¦--General Administration
## 17 ¦ ¦--Interest on Debt
## 18 ¦ °--NEC
## 19 °--Infrastructure, Utilities & Regulation
## 20 ¦--Highways
## 21 ¦--Police, Corrections & Judicial
## 22 ¦--Protective Inspection & Regulation
## 23 ¦--Utilities
## 24 °--Waste Management & Sewerage
Overview Plots
The below plots provide aggregated geographical (national, state,
regional) summaries of expenditure categories and shares to demonstrate
the composition of national expenditure across the categories. The final
two plots demonstrate the composition of expenditure within the Public
Welfare, Services & Facilities category.




Data Coverage
One of the issues reported by the data collectors is that the surveys
are only mandatory every 5 years. So, although data exists and is
reported annually, there are several counties that do not report figures
in many years. 30% of the panel values are missing due to this. I am
unsure what to do with this information and whether there might be any
fixes. Climate Econometrics uses indicator saturation to fill in missing
values which I would be interested to try but I do not yet know if this
is appropriate for this dataset (especially on outcome variables). In
the below charts, I have provided a map that shows the proportion of
each county’s time series (1970-2020) that is missing. States outlined
in red are top fossil-fuel producing states (Texas, Pennsylvania,
Oklahoma, Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Nevada, New Mexico,
Louisiana, Colorado).

Analysis of Time Trends
Panel Linear Time Trends
The following tables provide standard linear time trends evaluated in
a county-fixed effects panel linear regression model for a panel of
3,058 counties and for a time period of 1970-2020.
Dependent variables: Expenditure by category per capita
values.
Data: Raw data and linearly interpolated data (likely a flawed
method).
Result: Per capita expenditure does follow an increasing
trend albeit very small and not in line with growth in personal income
rates (Pinc K below).
Note: Amount pc denotes total public expenditure and Pinc K
denotes personal income per capita (as GDP indicators are not available
for the full duration of the panel).
|
|
Expenditure PC
|
|
Outcome Variable
|
- Raw Data
|
- Lin. Interpol.
|
|
Real Gdp Govt
|
-11.23***
|
0.85
|
|
|
2.59
|
1
|
|
Commercial
|
0.05***
|
0.07***
|
|
|
0
|
0.01
|
|
Public Welfare Services Facilities
|
1.17***
|
1.74***
|
|
|
0.04
|
0.05
|
|
Administration Misc
|
1.34***
|
2.09***
|
|
|
0.04
|
0.05
|
|
Infrastructure Utilities Regulation
|
1.41***
|
2.23***
|
|
|
0.03
|
0.04
|
|
Gdp Govt
|
137.48***
|
50.39***
|
|
|
3.29
|
1.22
|
|
Pinc K
|
877.22***
|
879.15***
|
|
|
4.36
|
4.37
|
|
Gdp O G Mining Quarr 21
|
1102.84
|
344.31
|
|
|
911.7
|
227.61
|
|
Gdp Priv Ind
|
2063.18*
|
662.52**
|
|
|
910.79
|
228.02
|
|
Gdp Total
|
2200.66*
|
712.91**
|
|
|
910.96
|
228.07
|
|
Real Gdp O G Mining Quarr 21
|
2772.27
|
568.74
|
|
|
2304.29
|
455.72
|
|
Real Gdp Total
|
3201.33
|
736.58
|
|
|
2293.89
|
455.14
|
|
Real Gdp Priv Ind
|
3215.08
|
735.89
|
|
|
2295.59
|
455.47
|
|
|
Expenditure (per capita)
|
|
Outcome Variable
|
- Raw Data
|
- Lin. Interpol.
|
|
Amount Pc
|
33***
|
31.72***
|
|
|
0.63
|
0.6
|
Spatial Variation: Linear Time Trends
The below shows spatial distribution of trends in personal income,
total direct expenditure, and expenditure (all in per capita values) in
our four broad categories (trend values calculated in a linear time
series model). These graphs show variation in the linear trends across
counties.

Preliminary Shift-Share Treatment Results
Preliminary model results making use of shift-share instruments in
employment coming from coal, extraction, and oil & gas
industries.
Dependent variables covered (all in per capita values):
* Total Revenue
+ Total Revenue (own sources)
+ Total Taxes
* Total Public Expenditure
+ Commercial
+ Public Welfare, Services, Facilities
+ Administration & Miscellaneous
+ Infrastructure, Utilities & Regulation
Model Specifications:
* First stage regressions using changes in employment in coal, O&G,
Extraction
* 2SLS using employment based shift-share instruments (base years 2001,
2005, and 2011)
+ 1- and 2-year time lags
+ interacted with regional dummies (5 in total)
+ interacted with a dummy for low economic diversity
* Using total county-level GDP, private-industry level GDP, and govt
GDP) together and separately as control variables (govt gdp should be
ignored when revenue is a dependent variable).
All models above were run for the time period 2001-2021 and 2005-2015
(to encompass the years immediately before and after the fossil fuel
employment peak in ~2010). This specification was tested mainly as a
precaution against static Bartik shares that assume consistency of
initial employment shares over the entire time series.
The models below use a 2SLS approach using the shift-share as an
instrument for changes in employment and wages per industry per county.
Each model employs county- and year-fixed effects with two-way
clustering of the standard errors.
The following tables show model results where at least one of the
treatment variables (ie. not the GDP control variables) have a
statistically significant regression coefficient at the 1% level.
Results by Industry Type and Dependent Variable
Coal
Public Revenue
TOTAL_REVENUE_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.310
|
−0.297
|
|
|
(0.222)
|
(0.220)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−1.344
|
−1.337
|
|
|
(0.806)
|
(0.796)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−2.520*
|
−2.534*
|
|
|
(1.029)
|
(1.026)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
2.072***
|
2.114***
|
|
|
(0.525)
|
(0.461)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
13.199*
|
|
|
|
(6.087)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
13.076*
|
|
|
|
(5.862)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
833
|
833
|
|
R2
|
0.937
|
0.936
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.930
|
0.930
|
|
R2 Within
|
−0.132
|
−0.133
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.139
|
−0.140
|
|
AIC
|
11780.7
|
11781.5
|
|
BIC
|
12163.4
|
12164.2
|
|
RMSE
|
258.54
|
258.67
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
TOTAL_REV_OWN_SOURCES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
(9)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
0.484***
|
|
|
0.532**
|
0.317**
|
|
|
0.517***
|
|
|
|
(0.065)
|
|
|
(0.119)
|
(0.040)
|
|
|
(0.027)
|
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
1.043
|
|
|
1.104
|
0.628+
|
|
|
1.082
|
|
|
|
(0.579)
|
|
|
(0.608)
|
(0.236)
|
|
|
(0.594)
|
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
15.072
|
8.424
|
12.473*
|
15.594
|
39.845**
|
8.800+
|
|
|
|
|
|
(10.746)
|
(5.627)
|
(4.687)
|
(11.980)
|
(5.139)
|
(5.066)
|
|
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
71.377
|
33.356
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(50.477)
|
(89.629)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.330+
|
−0.365***
|
|
|
−0.364*
|
−0.349***
|
|
−0.355*
|
|
|
|
(0.177)
|
(0.090)
|
|
|
(0.142)
|
(0.086)
|
|
(0.140)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.719
|
−1.238+
|
|
|
−0.740
|
−1.224+
|
|
−0.737+
|
|
|
|
(0.460)
|
(0.625)
|
|
|
(0.428)
|
(0.601)
|
|
(0.420)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−2.364**
|
−2.109*
|
|
|
−2.329***
|
−2.080*
|
|
−2.338***
|
|
|
|
(0.631)
|
(0.994)
|
|
|
(0.583)
|
(0.988)
|
|
(0.580)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
1.794*
|
1.406*
|
|
|
1.682*
|
1.450*
|
|
1.707*
|
|
|
|
(0.783)
|
(0.589)
|
|
|
(0.638)
|
(0.565)
|
|
(0.622)
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12.399*
|
15.736
|
8.762+
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(4.457)
|
(11.677)
|
(4.877)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
75
|
833
|
647
|
75
|
44
|
833
|
647
|
75
|
833
|
|
R2
|
0.700
|
0.935
|
0.934
|
0.671
|
0.829
|
0.935
|
0.934
|
0.681
|
0.935
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.506
|
0.928
|
0.926
|
0.471
|
0.631
|
0.928
|
0.926
|
0.487
|
0.928
|
|
R2 Within
|
−0.819
|
−0.017
|
−0.013
|
−0.993
|
0.145
|
−0.014
|
−0.010
|
−0.930
|
−0.015
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.980
|
−0.025
|
−0.022
|
−1.123
|
0.017
|
−0.020
|
−0.018
|
−1.055
|
−0.021
|
|
AIC
|
971.8
|
11263.9
|
8863.8
|
976.7
|
547.1
|
11259.2
|
8861.5
|
974.3
|
11260.0
|
|
BIC
|
1041.4
|
11651.4
|
9176.8
|
1043.9
|
589.9
|
11641.9
|
9174.6
|
1041.5
|
11642.7
|
|
RMSE
|
105.63
|
189.37
|
204.95
|
110.58
|
70.30
|
189.06
|
204.60
|
108.80
|
189.15
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
TOTAL_TAXES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
(9)
|
(10)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
0.106**
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.004)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
1.439*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.169)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
4.402*
|
8.441+
|
10.129*
|
9.296*
|
9.146*
|
7.996*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.868)
|
(4.301)
|
(4.052)
|
(4.239)
|
(4.019)
|
(3.801)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
−84.994*
|
−39.477
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(15.169)
|
(52.194)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.096
|
|
−0.059
|
|
−0.056
|
|
−0.048
|
|
−0.049
|
|
|
|
(0.080)
|
|
(0.114)
|
|
(0.054)
|
|
(0.114)
|
|
(0.051)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.419+
|
|
−0.533+
|
|
−0.395+
|
|
−0.512+
|
|
−0.384*
|
|
|
|
(0.215)
|
|
(0.274)
|
|
(0.188)
|
|
(0.256)
|
|
(0.180)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.255
|
|
−0.405+
|
|
−0.297
|
|
−0.386*
|
|
−0.306
|
|
|
|
(0.179)
|
|
(0.210)
|
|
(0.198)
|
|
(0.181)
|
|
(0.202)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
1.267***
|
|
1.396**
|
|
1.399***
|
|
1.441**
|
|
1.435***
|
|
|
|
(0.295)
|
|
(0.436)
|
|
(0.113)
|
|
(0.415)
|
|
(0.056)
|
|
EconDiv_{low}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
|
−0.364***
|
|
−0.332**
|
|
−0.332**
|
|
−0.313**
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.067)
|
|
(0.110)
|
|
(0.095)
|
|
(0.092)
|
|
|
EconDiv_{high}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
|
0.484
|
|
0.270
|
|
0.511
|
|
0.287
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.368)
|
|
(0.258)
|
|
(0.391)
|
|
(0.273)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
9.785*
|
9.056*
|
8.849*
|
7.791*
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(3.892)
|
(4.062)
|
(3.839)
|
(3.652)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
16
|
833
|
647
|
647
|
833
|
833
|
647
|
647
|
833
|
833
|
|
R2
|
1.000
|
0.920
|
0.924
|
0.920
|
0.922
|
0.918
|
0.923
|
0.919
|
0.922
|
0.917
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.998
|
0.911
|
0.915
|
0.910
|
0.914
|
0.909
|
0.914
|
0.909
|
0.914
|
0.908
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.956
|
0.165
|
0.210
|
0.163
|
0.190
|
0.142
|
0.202
|
0.159
|
0.182
|
0.135
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.780
|
0.158
|
0.206
|
0.156
|
0.187
|
0.136
|
0.198
|
0.152
|
0.179
|
0.130
|
|
AIC
|
57.6
|
10378.1
|
8169.5
|
8211.3
|
10346.9
|
10399.0
|
8176.5
|
8214.4
|
10355.0
|
10404.9
|
|
BIC
|
69.2
|
10765.6
|
8473.6
|
8524.4
|
10720.2
|
10781.7
|
8480.6
|
8527.5
|
10728.2
|
10787.6
|
|
RMSE
|
0.57
|
111.27
|
120.22
|
123.78
|
109.60
|
112.81
|
120.87
|
124.08
|
110.13
|
113.21
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Public Expenditure (Total)
TOTAL
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.135
|
−0.192
|
−0.185
|
|
|
(0.297)
|
(0.228)
|
(0.228)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.892
|
−0.922
|
−0.926
|
|
|
(0.655)
|
(0.617)
|
(0.612)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−3.369***
|
−3.256***
|
−3.271***
|
|
|
(0.491)
|
(0.632)
|
(0.629)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.012
|
−0.192
|
−0.181
|
|
|
(0.536)
|
(0.360)
|
(0.332)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
7.395+
|
8.042*
|
|
|
|
(3.976)
|
(3.642)
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
62.325
|
|
|
|
|
(91.515)
|
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
8.104*
|
|
|
|
|
(3.529)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
833
|
833
|
833
|
|
R2
|
0.941
|
0.940
|
0.940
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.935
|
0.934
|
0.934
|
|
R2 Within
|
−0.092
|
−0.102
|
−0.102
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.101
|
−0.109
|
−0.110
|
|
AIC
|
11553.3
|
11559.2
|
11559.3
|
|
BIC
|
11940.8
|
11941.9
|
11942.0
|
|
RMSE
|
225.29
|
226.36
|
226.37
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Public Expenditure (Granular)
ADMINISTRATION_MISC_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−0.133***
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.001)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
3.946***
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.065)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
17.105***
|
1.950**
|
1.765*
|
1.800**
|
|
|
|
|
(0.334)
|
(0.641)
|
(0.693)
|
(0.554)
|
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
−293.014***
|
−13.347
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(5.840)
|
(9.430)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.058***
|
−0.047**
|
−0.044***
|
−0.045**
|
−0.043***
|
|
|
|
(0.013)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.004)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.104*
|
−0.115*
|
−0.096*
|
−0.110**
|
−0.093*
|
|
|
|
(0.047)
|
(0.041)
|
(0.044)
|
(0.036)
|
(0.044)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
0.129
|
0.115
|
0.115
|
0.118
|
0.113
|
|
|
|
(0.105)
|
(0.176)
|
(0.097)
|
(0.173)
|
(0.095)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
0.167*
|
0.226**
|
0.212**
|
0.235***
|
0.221**
|
|
|
|
(0.069)
|
(0.059)
|
(0.057)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.057)
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
|
|
1.711*
|
1.743**
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.662)
|
(0.532)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
16
|
833
|
647
|
833
|
647
|
833
|
|
R2
|
1.000
|
0.713
|
0.763
|
0.710
|
0.763
|
0.710
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.995
|
0.682
|
0.735
|
0.680
|
0.735
|
0.679
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.999
|
0.170
|
0.155
|
0.163
|
0.155
|
0.161
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.993
|
0.163
|
0.147
|
0.157
|
0.147
|
0.156
|
|
AIC
|
27.1
|
8204.1
|
6423.2
|
8209.3
|
6423.0
|
8210.7
|
|
BIC
|
38.7
|
8591.6
|
6736.2
|
8592.0
|
6736.0
|
8593.5
|
|
RMSE
|
0.22
|
30.18
|
31.08
|
30.31
|
31.08
|
30.33
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
COMMERCIAL_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
(7)
|
(8)
|
(9)
|
(10)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−0.005***
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.000)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.101**
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.007)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
0.710**
|
−0.020
|
−0.025
|
−0.056
|
−0.009
|
−0.018
|
−0.047
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.035)
|
(0.064)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.047)
|
(0.064)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.045)
|
|
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
−12.014**
|
0.826
|
0.513
|
0.842
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.608)
|
(1.092)
|
(0.736)
|
(0.971)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.017***
|
−0.018***
|
−0.014***
|
−0.018***
|
−0.018***
|
−0.015***
|
−0.018***
|
−0.018***
|
−0.015***
|
|
|
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.002)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.002)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.003)
|
(0.002)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.017
|
−0.014
|
−0.003
|
−0.018
|
−0.014
|
−0.004
|
−0.018
|
−0.014
|
−0.004
|
|
|
|
(0.017)
|
(0.015)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.018)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.004)
|
(0.018)
|
(0.015)
|
(0.004)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.035
|
−0.064
|
−0.012+
|
−0.037
|
−0.061
|
−0.011+
|
−0.037
|
−0.060
|
−0.011+
|
|
|
|
(0.023)
|
(0.092)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.086)
|
(0.006)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.086)
|
(0.006)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
0.004
|
0.003
|
0.007
|
0.001
|
0.002
|
0.004
|
0.001
|
0.001
|
0.004
|
|
|
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.007)
|
(0.007)
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
−0.007
|
−0.016
|
−0.044
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.064)
|
(0.056)
|
(0.044)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
16
|
647
|
835
|
833
|
647
|
835
|
833
|
647
|
835
|
833
|
|
R2
|
0.999
|
0.719
|
0.714
|
0.741
|
0.716
|
0.715
|
0.741
|
0.716
|
0.715
|
0.741
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.989
|
0.685
|
0.682
|
0.713
|
0.682
|
0.684
|
0.713
|
0.682
|
0.684
|
0.713
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.993
|
−0.061
|
−0.100
|
0.001
|
−0.073
|
−0.097
|
−0.001
|
−0.074
|
−0.098
|
−0.002
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.963
|
−0.072
|
−0.109
|
−0.007
|
−0.082
|
−0.104
|
−0.008
|
−0.083
|
−0.105
|
−0.008
|
|
AIC
|
−45.3
|
4218.6
|
5254.8
|
5132.6
|
4223.8
|
5250.3
|
5132.5
|
4224.4
|
5251.0
|
5132.9
|
|
BIC
|
−33.7
|
4536.1
|
5656.6
|
5520.0
|
4536.8
|
5647.4
|
5515.2
|
4537.5
|
5648.1
|
5515.6
|
|
RMSE
|
0.02
|
5.65
|
5.08
|
4.78
|
5.68
|
5.08
|
4.78
|
5.68
|
5.08
|
4.78
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
INFRASTRUCTURE_UTILITIES_REGULATION_PC
|
|
(1)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−0.032**
|
|
|
(0.001)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
1.968***
|
|
|
(0.052)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
8.253**
|
|
|
(0.265)
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
−99.977**
|
|
|
(4.634)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
16
|
|
R2
|
1.000
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.998
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.998
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.989
|
|
AIC
|
19.7
|
|
BIC
|
31.3
|
|
RMSE
|
0.18
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
PUBLIC_WELFARE_SERVICES_FACILITIES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
0.004
|
0.007
|
0.008
|
|
|
(0.031)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.024)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.092
|
−0.090
|
−0.089
|
|
|
(0.074)
|
(0.070)
|
(0.069)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.733**
|
−0.736**
|
−0.737**
|
|
|
(0.229)
|
(0.234)
|
(0.233)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.045
|
−0.034
|
−0.031
|
|
|
(0.087)
|
(0.057)
|
(0.053)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
0.635
|
0.598
|
|
|
|
(0.655)
|
(0.568)
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
−3.222
|
|
|
|
|
(10.366)
|
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
0.582
|
|
|
|
|
(0.543)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
833
|
833
|
833
|
|
R2
|
0.928
|
0.928
|
0.928
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.920
|
0.921
|
0.921
|
|
R2 Within
|
−0.119
|
−0.117
|
−0.115
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.128
|
−0.124
|
−0.123
|
|
AIC
|
8112.3
|
8108.3
|
8107.4
|
|
BIC
|
8499.8
|
8491.0
|
8490.1
|
|
RMSE
|
28.56
|
28.52
|
28.51
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Oil & Gas
Public Revenue
TOTAL_REVENUE_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−129.014***
|
−139.891***
|
|
|
(13.636)
|
(19.748)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
5.947
|
6.223
|
|
|
(4.514)
|
(36.149)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
35.903
|
|
|
|
(25.435)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
38.348
|
|
|
|
(26.325)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
683
|
683
|
|
R2
|
−11.979
|
−14.153
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
−13.464
|
−15.886
|
|
R2 Within
|
−44.453
|
−52.066
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−44.675
|
−52.326
|
|
AIC
|
13485.5
|
13591.3
|
|
BIC
|
13806.9
|
13912.6
|
|
RMSE
|
4227.43
|
4567.77
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
TOTAL_REV_OWN_SOURCES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−159.005***
|
−170.024***
|
|
|
(6.792)
|
(6.894)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
6.409
|
6.679
|
|
|
(24.713)
|
(26.234)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
40.411
|
|
|
|
(23.767)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
42.626
|
|
|
|
(25.739)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
683
|
683
|
|
R2
|
−24.263
|
−27.774
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
−27.152
|
−31.066
|
|
R2 Within
|
−83.757
|
−95.538
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−84.172
|
−96.011
|
|
AIC
|
13758.0
|
13846.8
|
|
BIC
|
14079.3
|
14168.2
|
|
RMSE
|
5160.65
|
5507.65
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
TOTAL_TAXES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−26.789***
|
−28.904***
|
|
|
(1.204)
|
(1.227)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.908
|
0.960
|
|
|
(4.342)
|
(4.587)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
7.753+
|
|
|
|
(4.316)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
8.179+
|
|
|
|
(4.657)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
683
|
683
|
|
R2
|
−6.236
|
−7.370
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
−7.064
|
−8.327
|
|
R2 Within
|
−26.530
|
−30.844
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−26.665
|
−31.000
|
|
AIC
|
11331.7
|
11431.1
|
|
BIC
|
11653.1
|
11752.5
|
|
RMSE
|
873.61
|
939.56
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Public Expenditure (Total)
[1] “No significant results!”
Public Expenditure (Granular)
ADMINISTRATION_MISC_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
|
Emp. O&G (FD)
|
0.003***
|
0.003***
|
0.003***
|
|
|
|
|
(0.001)
|
(0.001)
|
(0.001)
|
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
−0.015
|
|
|
|
−0.310
|
|
|
(0.034)
|
|
|
|
(1.032)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
|
−0.031
|
−0.016
|
−0.329
|
|
|
|
|
(0.037)
|
(0.034)
|
(1.061)
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
|
8.763+
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(4.852)
|
|
|
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
|
|
|
4.971***
|
4.975***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.399)
|
(0.367)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
|
|
|
−0.152
|
−0.151
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.774)
|
(0.770)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
5276
|
5276
|
5276
|
683
|
683
|
|
R2
|
0.762
|
0.764
|
0.762
|
−4.008
|
−4.015
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.738
|
0.740
|
0.738
|
−4.580
|
−4.588
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.000
|
0.011
|
0.000
|
−9.926
|
−9.942
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.000
|
0.010
|
0.000
|
−9.980
|
−9.995
|
|
AIC
|
56504.7
|
56452.7
|
56504.6
|
9085.3
|
9086.3
|
|
BIC
|
59671.9
|
59626.5
|
59671.7
|
9406.7
|
9407.6
|
|
RMSE
|
46.74
|
46.50
|
46.74
|
168.70
|
168.82
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
COMMERCIAL_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−3.023***
|
−2.682***
|
−2.783***
|
|
|
(0.354)
|
(0.108)
|
(0.108)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.114
|
0.107
|
0.109
|
|
|
(0.421)
|
(0.387)
|
(0.397)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
0.479
|
0.450
|
|
|
|
(0.423)
|
(0.393)
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
1.883
|
|
|
|
|
(7.574)
|
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
0.465
|
|
|
|
|
(0.406)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
683
|
683
|
683
|
|
R2
|
−92.248
|
−72.970
|
−78.409
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
−103.084
|
−81.431
|
−87.491
|
|
R2 Within
|
−152.497
|
−120.764
|
−129.716
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−153.502
|
−121.361
|
−130.357
|
|
AIC
|
8346.6
|
8186.4
|
8234.9
|
|
BIC
|
8672.5
|
8507.8
|
8556.2
|
|
RMSE
|
98.09
|
87.36
|
90.52
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
INFRASTRUCTURE_UTILITIES_REGULATION_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−10.647***
|
−10.969***
|
|
|
(0.571)
|
(0.545)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.222
|
0.229
|
|
|
(1.491)
|
(1.534)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
1.488
|
|
|
|
(1.657)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
1.533
|
|
|
|
(1.666)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
683
|
683
|
|
R2
|
−8.123
|
−8.650
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
−9.166
|
−9.754
|
|
R2 Within
|
−13.689
|
−14.537
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−13.761
|
−14.613
|
|
AIC
|
10069.4
|
10107.7
|
|
BIC
|
10390.8
|
10429.1
|
|
RMSE
|
346.73
|
356.60
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
PUBLIC_WELFARE_SERVICES_FACILITIES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l1)
|
−8.636
|
|
|
(9.598)
|
|
O&G Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.371***
|
|
|
(0.079)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
1.896
|
|
|
(1.362)
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
15.526
|
|
|
(27.773)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
683
|
|
R2
|
−7.126
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
−8.070
|
|
R2 Within
|
−40.912
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−41.186
|
|
AIC
|
9798.1
|
|
BIC
|
10124.0
|
|
RMSE
|
283.86
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Results for restricted time series
The following shows the significant results (using same exclusion
restrictions and mdoel specifications as in the above section - 1%
statistically significant regressors excluding GDP controls) but
restricts the time series to 2005-2015 to encompass the years
immediately before and after the fossil fuel employment peak in ~2010.
This specification was tested mainly as a precaution against static
Bartik shares that assume consistency of initial employment shares over
the entire time series.
Coal
Public Revenue
TOTAL_REV_OWN_SOURCES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
0.391***
|
0.472**
|
|
0.452**
|
|
|
|
(0.055)
|
(0.097)
|
|
(0.101)
|
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.762*
|
0.916*
|
|
0.874*
|
|
|
|
(0.270)
|
(0.362)
|
|
(0.341)
|
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
19.093
|
19.143
|
9.207+
|
|
|
|
|
(11.931)
|
(14.569)
|
(4.852)
|
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
121.241
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(75.237)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
|
−0.411
|
|
−0.400
|
|
|
|
|
(0.261)
|
|
(0.265)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
|
−0.870
|
|
−0.866
|
|
|
|
|
(0.556)
|
|
(0.545)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
|
−3.302*
|
|
−3.314*
|
|
|
|
|
(1.103)
|
|
(1.095)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
|
6.390**
|
|
6.503**
|
|
|
|
|
(1.837)
|
|
(1.781)
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
|
19.579
|
9.093+
|
|
|
|
|
|
(14.174)
|
(4.668)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
55
|
55
|
534
|
55
|
534
|
|
R2
|
0.809
|
0.759
|
0.959
|
0.773
|
0.959
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.687
|
0.618
|
0.953
|
0.640
|
0.953
|
|
R2 Within
|
−0.215
|
−0.530
|
0.033
|
−0.440
|
0.029
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.362
|
−0.665
|
0.023
|
−0.567
|
0.018
|
|
AIC
|
697.8
|
708.5
|
7095.8
|
705.1
|
7098.4
|
|
BIC
|
741.9
|
750.6
|
7421.2
|
747.3
|
7423.7
|
|
RMSE
|
92.25
|
103.54
|
161.22
|
100.44
|
161.60
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
TOTAL_TAXES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
(4)
|
(5)
|
(6)
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l1)
|
0.093**
|
|
0.079***
|
|
0.077***
|
|
|
|
(0.026)
|
|
(0.007)
|
|
(0.006)
|
|
|
Coal Emp Brtk (l2)
|
0.097
|
|
0.071+
|
|
0.069*
|
|
|
|
(0.065)
|
|
(0.031)
|
|
(0.027)
|
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
5.163**
|
6.352+
|
5.155**
|
6.690+
|
|
|
|
|
(0.973)
|
(3.218)
|
(1.059)
|
(3.302)
|
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
−20.557
|
37.845
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(33.403)
|
(52.899)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
0.110
|
|
0.058
|
|
0.069
|
|
|
|
(0.213)
|
|
(0.216)
|
|
(0.220)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.479+
|
|
−0.489+
|
|
−0.491+
|
|
|
|
(0.263)
|
|
(0.266)
|
|
(0.264)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
−0.341**
|
|
−0.294+
|
|
−0.302+
|
|
|
|
(0.101)
|
|
(0.148)
|
|
(0.149)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
|
6.208***
|
|
5.756***
|
|
5.825***
|
|
|
|
(1.158)
|
|
(0.922)
|
|
(0.910)
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
|
|
5.041**
|
6.703+
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
(1.039)
|
(3.249)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
55
|
534
|
55
|
534
|
55
|
534
|
|
R2
|
0.960
|
0.935
|
0.963
|
0.938
|
0.963
|
0.937
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.935
|
0.924
|
0.942
|
0.927
|
0.941
|
0.927
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.192
|
−0.033
|
0.256
|
0.008
|
0.248
|
0.001
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.094
|
−0.047
|
0.190
|
−0.003
|
0.181
|
−0.010
|
|
AIC
|
511.7
|
6686.6
|
505.2
|
6662.8
|
505.8
|
6666.6
|
|
BIC
|
555.9
|
7016.2
|
547.3
|
6988.1
|
547.9
|
6991.9
|
|
RMSE
|
16.99
|
109.70
|
16.31
|
107.48
|
16.40
|
107.86
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Public Expenditure (Total)
[1] “No significant results!”
Public Expenditure (Granular)
ADMINISTRATION_MISC_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.050+
|
−0.050+
|
|
|
(0.024)
|
(0.025)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.126
|
−0.123
|
|
|
(0.071)
|
(0.070)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
0.007
|
0.005
|
|
|
(0.082)
|
(0.085)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
0.517**
|
0.543**
|
|
|
(0.150)
|
(0.142)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
1.512*
|
|
|
|
(0.642)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
1.441*
|
|
|
|
(0.613)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
534
|
534
|
|
R2
|
0.813
|
0.813
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.783
|
0.783
|
|
R2 Within
|
−0.021
|
−0.021
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.032
|
−0.032
|
|
AIC
|
5218.5
|
5218.4
|
|
BIC
|
5543.8
|
5543.7
|
|
RMSE
|
27.80
|
27.79
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
COMMERCIAL_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.028*
|
−0.031*
|
−0.031*
|
|
|
(0.009)
|
(0.014)
|
(0.014)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
0.000
|
−0.001
|
−0.001
|
|
|
(0.009)
|
(0.009)
|
(0.009)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.013
|
−0.011
|
−0.010
|
|
|
(0.011)
|
(0.011)
|
(0.011)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
0.096**
|
0.068***
|
0.065***
|
|
|
(0.024)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.012)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
−0.167
|
−0.146
|
|
|
|
(0.129)
|
(0.110)
|
|
|
Govt GDP (PC)
|
2.355
|
|
|
|
|
(1.960)
|
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
|
−0.139
|
|
|
|
|
(0.109)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
534
|
534
|
534
|
|
R2
|
0.761
|
0.761
|
0.761
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.722
|
0.722
|
0.722
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.009
|
0.008
|
0.008
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
−0.004
|
−0.003
|
−0.003
|
|
AIC
|
3414.0
|
3412.2
|
3412.3
|
|
BIC
|
3743.5
|
3737.5
|
3737.6
|
|
RMSE
|
5.12
|
5.12
|
5.12
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
PUBLIC_WELFARE_SERVICES_FACILITIES_PC
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
|
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
0.084**
|
0.086**
|
|
|
(0.025)
|
(0.026)
|
|
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.013
|
−0.015
|
|
|
(0.081)
|
(0.079)
|
|
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.332
|
−0.332
|
|
|
(0.321)
|
(0.321)
|
|
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD)
|
−0.031
|
−0.036
|
|
|
(0.151)
|
(0.136)
|
|
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC)
|
0.174
|
|
|
|
(0.615)
|
|
|
Total GDP (PC)
|
|
0.220
|
|
|
|
(0.566)
|
|
Num.Obs.
|
534
|
534
|
|
R2
|
0.966
|
0.966
|
|
R2 Adj.
|
0.960
|
0.960
|
|
R2 Within
|
0.089
|
0.091
|
|
R2 Within Adj.
|
0.079
|
0.081
|
|
AIC
|
4840.9
|
4839.7
|
|
BIC
|
5166.2
|
5165.1
|
|
RMSE
|
19.52
|
19.50
|
|
Std.Errors
|
by: fips & year
|
by: fips & year
|
|
FE: fips
|
X
|
X
|
|
FE: year
|
X
|
X
|
|
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p <
0.001
|
Oil & Gas
Public Revenue
[1] “No significant results!”
Public Expenditure (Total)
[1] “No significant results!”
Public Expenditure (Granular)
[1] “No significant results!”