Overview

The following document provides an initial descriptive analysis and data coverage overview of the [Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances. The data is provided in a standardised format from Willamette University. The data is available at a county level between 1970 - 2020 with improved coverage in more recent years. The data has been cleaned and grouped into 17 expenditure categories (listed in data tree below), 4 higher-level categories (comprised of the 17 lower-level categories), and as a county-level total expenditure. All plots are presented using the raw data, whereas the tables presenting the linear time trend results include results for both the raw data and linearly interpolated data.

Data

Expenditure categories

The data is currently structured in county-year pairs with observations for 17 public expenditure categories. I have manually grouped these 17 categories into 4 higher categories (that can be changed/redefined easily!). The tree structure below displays all categories and groupings. As currently thought out, any or a combination of these categories will serve as outcome/dependent variables.

##                                     levelName
## 1  Total Public Expenditure                  
## 2   ¦--Commercial                            
## 3   ¦   ¦--Air Transportation                
## 4   ¦   ¦--Liquor Stores                     
## 5   ¦   °--Port Facilities                   
## 6   ¦--Public Welfare, Services & Facilities 
## 7   ¦   ¦--Education                         
## 8   ¦   ¦--Fire Protection                   
## 9   ¦   ¦--Health & Hospitals                
## 10  ¦   ¦--Housing & Community Development   
## 11  ¦   ¦--Public Services & Facilities      
## 12  ¦   ¦--Public Transit                    
## 13  ¦   ¦--Public Welfare                    
## 14  ¦   °--Retirement                        
## 15  ¦--Administration & Misc.                
## 16  ¦   ¦--General Administration            
## 17  ¦   ¦--Interest on Debt                  
## 18  ¦   °--NEC                               
## 19  °--Infrastructure, Utilities & Regulation
## 20      ¦--Highways                          
## 21      ¦--Police, Corrections & Judicial    
## 22      ¦--Protective Inspection & Regulation
## 23      ¦--Utilities                         
## 24      °--Waste Management & Sewerage

Overview Plots

The below plots provide aggregated geographical (national, state, regional) summaries of expenditure categories and shares to demonstrate the composition of national expenditure across the categories. The final two plots demonstrate the composition of expenditure within the Public Welfare, Services & Facilities category.

Data Coverage

One of the issues reported by the data collectors is that the surveys are only mandatory every 5 years. So, although data exists and is reported annually, there are several counties that do not report figures in many years. 30% of the panel values are missing due to this. I am unsure what to do with this information and whether there might be any fixes. Climate Econometrics uses indicator saturation to fill in missing values which I would be interested to try but I do not yet know if this is appropriate for this dataset (especially on outcome variables). In the below charts, I have provided a map that shows the proportion of each county’s time series (1970-2020) that is missing. States outlined in red are top fossil-fuel producing states (Texas, Pennsylvania, Oklahoma, Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Nevada, New Mexico, Louisiana, Colorado).

Preliminary Shift-Share Treatment Results

Preliminary model results making use of shift-share instruments in employment coming from coal, extraction, and oil & gas industries.

Dependent variables covered (all in per capita values):
* Total Revenue
+ Total Revenue (own sources)
+ Total Taxes
* Total Public Expenditure
+ Commercial
+ Public Welfare, Services, Facilities
+ Administration & Miscellaneous
+ Infrastructure, Utilities & Regulation

Model Specifications:
* First stage regressions using changes in employment in coal, O&G, Extraction
* 2SLS using employment based shift-share instruments (base years 2001, 2005, and 2011)
+ 1- and 2-year time lags
+ interacted with regional dummies (5 in total)
+ interacted with a dummy for low economic diversity
* Using total county-level GDP, private-industry level GDP, and govt GDP) together and separately as control variables (govt gdp should be ignored when revenue is a dependent variable).

All models above were run for the time period 2001-2021 and 2005-2015 (to encompass the years immediately before and after the fossil fuel employment peak in ~2010). This specification was tested mainly as a precaution against static Bartik shares that assume consistency of initial employment shares over the entire time series.

The models below use a 2SLS approach using the shift-share as an instrument for changes in employment and wages per industry per county. Each model employs county- and year-fixed effects with two-way clustering of the standard errors.

The following tables show model results where at least one of the treatment variables (ie. not the GDP control variables) have a statistically significant regression coefficient at the 1% level.

Results by Industry Type and Dependent Variable

Coal

Public Revenue

TOTAL_REVENUE_PC
 (1)   (2)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.310 −0.297
(0.222) (0.220)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −1.344 −1.337
(0.806) (0.796)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −2.520* −2.534*
(1.029) (1.026)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 2.072*** 2.114***
(0.525) (0.461)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 13.199*
(6.087)
Total GDP (PC) 13.076*
(5.862)
Num.Obs. 833 833
R2 0.937 0.936
R2 Adj. 0.930 0.930
R2 Within −0.132 −0.133
R2 Within Adj. −0.139 −0.140
AIC 11780.7 11781.5
BIC 12163.4 12164.2
RMSE 258.54 258.67
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
TOTAL_REV_OWN_SOURCES_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)   (6)   (7)   (8)   (9)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) 0.484*** 0.532** 0.317** 0.517***
(0.065) (0.119) (0.040) (0.027)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 1.043 1.104 0.628+ 1.082
(0.579) (0.608) (0.236) (0.594)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 15.072 8.424 12.473* 15.594 39.845** 8.800+
(10.746) (5.627) (4.687) (11.980) (5.139) (5.066)
Govt GDP (PC) 71.377 33.356
(50.477) (89.629)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.330+ −0.365*** −0.364* −0.349*** −0.355*
(0.177) (0.090) (0.142) (0.086) (0.140)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.719 −1.238+ −0.740 −1.224+ −0.737+
(0.460) (0.625) (0.428) (0.601) (0.420)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −2.364** −2.109* −2.329*** −2.080* −2.338***
(0.631) (0.994) (0.583) (0.988) (0.580)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 1.794* 1.406* 1.682* 1.450* 1.707*
(0.783) (0.589) (0.638) (0.565) (0.622)
Total GDP (PC) 12.399* 15.736 8.762+
(4.457) (11.677) (4.877)
Num.Obs. 75 833 647 75 44 833 647 75 833
R2 0.700 0.935 0.934 0.671 0.829 0.935 0.934 0.681 0.935
R2 Adj. 0.506 0.928 0.926 0.471 0.631 0.928 0.926 0.487 0.928
R2 Within −0.819 −0.017 −0.013 −0.993 0.145 −0.014 −0.010 −0.930 −0.015
R2 Within Adj. −0.980 −0.025 −0.022 −1.123 0.017 −0.020 −0.018 −1.055 −0.021
AIC 971.8 11263.9 8863.8 976.7 547.1 11259.2 8861.5 974.3 11260.0
BIC 1041.4 11651.4 9176.8 1043.9 589.9 11641.9 9174.6 1041.5 11642.7
RMSE 105.63 189.37 204.95 110.58 70.30 189.06 204.60 108.80 189.15
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
TOTAL_TAXES_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)   (6)   (7)   (8)   (9)   (10)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) 0.106**
(0.004)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 1.439*
(0.169)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 4.402* 8.441+ 10.129* 9.296* 9.146* 7.996*
(0.868) (4.301) (4.052) (4.239) (4.019) (3.801)
Govt GDP (PC) −84.994* −39.477
(15.169) (52.194)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.096 −0.059 −0.056 −0.048 −0.049
(0.080) (0.114) (0.054) (0.114) (0.051)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.419+ −0.533+ −0.395+ −0.512+ −0.384*
(0.215) (0.274) (0.188) (0.256) (0.180)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.255 −0.405+ −0.297 −0.386* −0.306
(0.179) (0.210) (0.198) (0.181) (0.202)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 1.267*** 1.396** 1.399*** 1.441** 1.435***
(0.295) (0.436) (0.113) (0.415) (0.056)
EconDiv_{low}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.364*** −0.332** −0.332** −0.313**
(0.067) (0.110) (0.095) (0.092)
EconDiv_{high}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.484 0.270 0.511 0.287
(0.368) (0.258) (0.391) (0.273)
Total GDP (PC) 9.785* 9.056* 8.849* 7.791*
(3.892) (4.062) (3.839) (3.652)
Num.Obs. 16 833 647 647 833 833 647 647 833 833
R2 1.000 0.920 0.924 0.920 0.922 0.918 0.923 0.919 0.922 0.917
R2 Adj. 0.998 0.911 0.915 0.910 0.914 0.909 0.914 0.909 0.914 0.908
R2 Within 0.956 0.165 0.210 0.163 0.190 0.142 0.202 0.159 0.182 0.135
R2 Within Adj. 0.780 0.158 0.206 0.156 0.187 0.136 0.198 0.152 0.179 0.130
AIC 57.6 10378.1 8169.5 8211.3 10346.9 10399.0 8176.5 8214.4 10355.0 10404.9
BIC 69.2 10765.6 8473.6 8524.4 10720.2 10781.7 8480.6 8527.5 10728.2 10787.6
RMSE 0.57 111.27 120.22 123.78 109.60 112.81 120.87 124.08 110.13 113.21
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Public Expenditure (Total)

TOTAL
 (1)   (2)   (3)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.135 −0.192 −0.185
(0.297) (0.228) (0.228)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.892 −0.922 −0.926
(0.655) (0.617) (0.612)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −3.369*** −3.256*** −3.271***
(0.491) (0.632) (0.629)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.012 −0.192 −0.181
(0.536) (0.360) (0.332)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 7.395+ 8.042*
(3.976) (3.642)
Govt GDP (PC) 62.325
(91.515)
Total GDP (PC) 8.104*
(3.529)
Num.Obs. 833 833 833
R2 0.941 0.940 0.940
R2 Adj. 0.935 0.934 0.934
R2 Within −0.092 −0.102 −0.102
R2 Within Adj. −0.101 −0.109 −0.110
AIC 11553.3 11559.2 11559.3
BIC 11940.8 11941.9 11942.0
RMSE 225.29 226.36 226.37
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X
FE: year X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Public Expenditure (Granular)

ADMINISTRATION_MISC_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)   (6)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) −0.133***
(0.001)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 3.946***
(0.065)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 17.105*** 1.950** 1.765* 1.800**
(0.334) (0.641) (0.693) (0.554)
Govt GDP (PC) −293.014*** −13.347
(5.840) (9.430)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.058*** −0.047** −0.044*** −0.045** −0.043***
(0.013) (0.014) (0.005) (0.013) (0.004)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.104* −0.115* −0.096* −0.110** −0.093*
(0.047) (0.041) (0.044) (0.036) (0.044)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.129 0.115 0.115 0.118 0.113
(0.105) (0.176) (0.097) (0.173) (0.095)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.167* 0.226** 0.212** 0.235*** 0.221**
(0.069) (0.059) (0.057) (0.056) (0.057)
Total GDP (PC) 1.711* 1.743**
(0.662) (0.532)
Num.Obs. 16 833 647 833 647 833
R2 1.000 0.713 0.763 0.710 0.763 0.710
R2 Adj. 0.995 0.682 0.735 0.680 0.735 0.679
R2 Within 0.999 0.170 0.155 0.163 0.155 0.161
R2 Within Adj. 0.993 0.163 0.147 0.157 0.147 0.156
AIC 27.1 8204.1 6423.2 8209.3 6423.0 8210.7
BIC 38.7 8591.6 6736.2 8592.0 6736.0 8593.5
RMSE 0.22 30.18 31.08 30.31 31.08 30.33
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
COMMERCIAL_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)   (6)   (7)   (8)   (9)   (10)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) −0.005***
(0.000)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 0.101**
(0.007)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 0.710** −0.020 −0.025 −0.056 −0.009 −0.018 −0.047
(0.035) (0.064) (0.056) (0.047) (0.064) (0.056) (0.045)
Govt GDP (PC) −12.014** 0.826 0.513 0.842
(0.608) (1.092) (0.736) (0.971)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.017*** −0.018*** −0.014*** −0.018*** −0.018*** −0.015*** −0.018*** −0.018*** −0.015***
(0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.002)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.017 −0.014 −0.003 −0.018 −0.014 −0.004 −0.018 −0.014 −0.004
(0.017) (0.015) (0.004) (0.018) (0.014) (0.004) (0.018) (0.015) (0.004)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.035 −0.064 −0.012+ −0.037 −0.061 −0.011+ −0.037 −0.060 −0.011+
(0.023) (0.092) (0.007) (0.025) (0.086) (0.006) (0.025) (0.086) (0.006)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.004 0.003 0.007 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.001 0.001 0.004
(0.007) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007)
Total GDP (PC) −0.007 −0.016 −0.044
(0.064) (0.056) (0.044)
Num.Obs. 16 647 835 833 647 835 833 647 835 833
R2 0.999 0.719 0.714 0.741 0.716 0.715 0.741 0.716 0.715 0.741
R2 Adj. 0.989 0.685 0.682 0.713 0.682 0.684 0.713 0.682 0.684 0.713
R2 Within 0.993 −0.061 −0.100 0.001 −0.073 −0.097 −0.001 −0.074 −0.098 −0.002
R2 Within Adj. 0.963 −0.072 −0.109 −0.007 −0.082 −0.104 −0.008 −0.083 −0.105 −0.008
AIC −45.3 4218.6 5254.8 5132.6 4223.8 5250.3 5132.5 4224.4 5251.0 5132.9
BIC −33.7 4536.1 5656.6 5520.0 4536.8 5647.4 5515.2 4537.5 5648.1 5515.6
RMSE 0.02 5.65 5.08 4.78 5.68 5.08 4.78 5.68 5.08 4.78
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
INFRASTRUCTURE_UTILITIES_REGULATION_PC
 (1)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) −0.032**
(0.001)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 1.968***
(0.052)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 8.253**
(0.265)
Govt GDP (PC) −99.977**
(4.634)
Num.Obs. 16
R2 1.000
R2 Adj. 0.998
R2 Within 0.998
R2 Within Adj. 0.989
AIC 19.7
BIC 31.3
RMSE 0.18
Std.Errors by: fips & year
FE: fips X
FE: year X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
PUBLIC_WELFARE_SERVICES_FACILITIES_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.004 0.007 0.008
(0.031) (0.024) (0.024)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.092 −0.090 −0.089
(0.074) (0.070) (0.069)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.733** −0.736** −0.737**
(0.229) (0.234) (0.233)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.045 −0.034 −0.031
(0.087) (0.057) (0.053)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 0.635 0.598
(0.655) (0.568)
Govt GDP (PC) −3.222
(10.366)
Total GDP (PC) 0.582
(0.543)
Num.Obs. 833 833 833
R2 0.928 0.928 0.928
R2 Adj. 0.920 0.921 0.921
R2 Within −0.119 −0.117 −0.115
R2 Within Adj. −0.128 −0.124 −0.123
AIC 8112.3 8108.3 8107.4
BIC 8499.8 8491.0 8490.1
RMSE 28.56 28.52 28.51
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X
FE: year X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Oil & Gas

Public Revenue

TOTAL_REVENUE_PC
 (1)   (2)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) −129.014*** −139.891***
(13.636) (19.748)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) 5.947 6.223
(4.514) (36.149)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 35.903
(25.435)
Total GDP (PC) 38.348
(26.325)
Num.Obs. 683 683
R2 −11.979 −14.153
R2 Adj. −13.464 −15.886
R2 Within −44.453 −52.066
R2 Within Adj. −44.675 −52.326
AIC 13485.5 13591.3
BIC 13806.9 13912.6
RMSE 4227.43 4567.77
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
TOTAL_REV_OWN_SOURCES_PC
 (1)   (2)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) −159.005*** −170.024***
(6.792) (6.894)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) 6.409 6.679
(24.713) (26.234)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 40.411
(23.767)
Total GDP (PC) 42.626
(25.739)
Num.Obs. 683 683
R2 −24.263 −27.774
R2 Adj. −27.152 −31.066
R2 Within −83.757 −95.538
R2 Within Adj. −84.172 −96.011
AIC 13758.0 13846.8
BIC 14079.3 14168.2
RMSE 5160.65 5507.65
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
TOTAL_TAXES_PC
 (1)   (2)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) −26.789*** −28.904***
(1.204) (1.227)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) 0.908 0.960
(4.342) (4.587)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 7.753+
(4.316)
Total GDP (PC) 8.179+
(4.657)
Num.Obs. 683 683
R2 −6.236 −7.370
R2 Adj. −7.064 −8.327
R2 Within −26.530 −30.844
R2 Within Adj. −26.665 −31.000
AIC 11331.7 11431.1
BIC 11653.1 11752.5
RMSE 873.61 939.56
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Public Expenditure (Total)

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Granular)

ADMINISTRATION_MISC_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)
Emp. O&G (FD) 0.003*** 0.003*** 0.003***
(0.001) (0.001) (0.001)
Total GDP (PC) −0.015 −0.310
(0.034) (1.032)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) −0.031 −0.016 −0.329
(0.037) (0.034) (1.061)
Govt GDP (PC) 8.763+
(4.852)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) 4.971*** 4.975***
(0.399) (0.367)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) −0.152 −0.151
(0.774) (0.770)
Num.Obs. 5276 5276 5276 683 683
R2 0.762 0.764 0.762 −4.008 −4.015
R2 Adj. 0.738 0.740 0.738 −4.580 −4.588
R2 Within 0.000 0.011 0.000 −9.926 −9.942
R2 Within Adj. 0.000 0.010 0.000 −9.980 −9.995
AIC 56504.7 56452.7 56504.6 9085.3 9086.3
BIC 59671.9 59626.5 59671.7 9406.7 9407.6
RMSE 46.74 46.50 46.74 168.70 168.82
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
COMMERCIAL_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) −3.023*** −2.682*** −2.783***
(0.354) (0.108) (0.108)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) 0.114 0.107 0.109
(0.421) (0.387) (0.397)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 0.479 0.450
(0.423) (0.393)
Govt GDP (PC) 1.883
(7.574)
Total GDP (PC) 0.465
(0.406)
Num.Obs. 683 683 683
R2 −92.248 −72.970 −78.409
R2 Adj. −103.084 −81.431 −87.491
R2 Within −152.497 −120.764 −129.716
R2 Within Adj. −153.502 −121.361 −130.357
AIC 8346.6 8186.4 8234.9
BIC 8672.5 8507.8 8556.2
RMSE 98.09 87.36 90.52
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X
FE: year X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
INFRASTRUCTURE_UTILITIES_REGULATION_PC
 (1)   (2)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) −10.647*** −10.969***
(0.571) (0.545)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) 0.222 0.229
(1.491) (1.534)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 1.488
(1.657)
Total GDP (PC) 1.533
(1.666)
Num.Obs. 683 683
R2 −8.123 −8.650
R2 Adj. −9.166 −9.754
R2 Within −13.689 −14.537
R2 Within Adj. −13.761 −14.613
AIC 10069.4 10107.7
BIC 10390.8 10429.1
RMSE 346.73 356.60
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
PUBLIC_WELFARE_SERVICES_FACILITIES_PC
 (1)
O&G Emp Brtk (l1) −8.636
(9.598)
O&G Emp Brtk (l2) 0.371***
(0.079)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 1.896
(1.362)
Govt GDP (PC) 15.526
(27.773)
Num.Obs. 683
R2 −7.126
R2 Adj. −8.070
R2 Within −40.912
R2 Within Adj. −41.186
AIC 9798.1
BIC 10124.0
RMSE 283.86
Std.Errors by: fips & year
FE: fips X
FE: year X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Extraction

Public Revenue

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Total)

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Granular)

[1] “No significant results!”

Results for restricted time series

The following shows the significant results (using same exclusion restrictions and mdoel specifications as in the above section - 1% statistically significant regressors excluding GDP controls) but restricts the time series to 2005-2015 to encompass the years immediately before and after the fossil fuel employment peak in ~2010. This specification was tested mainly as a precaution against static Bartik shares that assume consistency of initial employment shares over the entire time series.

Coal

Public Revenue

TOTAL_REV_OWN_SOURCES_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) 0.391*** 0.472** 0.452**
(0.055) (0.097) (0.101)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 0.762* 0.916* 0.874*
(0.270) (0.362) (0.341)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 19.093 19.143 9.207+
(11.931) (14.569) (4.852)
Govt GDP (PC) 121.241
(75.237)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.411 −0.400
(0.261) (0.265)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.870 −0.866
(0.556) (0.545)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −3.302* −3.314*
(1.103) (1.095)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 6.390** 6.503**
(1.837) (1.781)
Total GDP (PC) 19.579 9.093+
(14.174) (4.668)
Num.Obs. 55 55 534 55 534
R2 0.809 0.759 0.959 0.773 0.959
R2 Adj. 0.687 0.618 0.953 0.640 0.953
R2 Within −0.215 −0.530 0.033 −0.440 0.029
R2 Within Adj. −0.362 −0.665 0.023 −0.567 0.018
AIC 697.8 708.5 7095.8 705.1 7098.4
BIC 741.9 750.6 7421.2 747.3 7423.7
RMSE 92.25 103.54 161.22 100.44 161.60
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
TOTAL_TAXES_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)   (4)   (5)   (6)
Coal Emp Brtk (l1) 0.093** 0.079*** 0.077***
(0.026) (0.007) (0.006)
Coal Emp Brtk (l2) 0.097 0.071+ 0.069*
(0.065) (0.031) (0.027)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 5.163** 6.352+ 5.155** 6.690+
(0.973) (3.218) (1.059) (3.302)
Govt GDP (PC) −20.557 37.845
(33.403) (52.899)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.110 0.058 0.069
(0.213) (0.216) (0.220)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.479+ −0.489+ −0.491+
(0.263) (0.266) (0.264)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.341** −0.294+ −0.302+
(0.101) (0.148) (0.149)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 6.208*** 5.756*** 5.825***
(1.158) (0.922) (0.910)
Total GDP (PC) 5.041** 6.703+
(1.039) (3.249)
Num.Obs. 55 534 55 534 55 534
R2 0.960 0.935 0.963 0.938 0.963 0.937
R2 Adj. 0.935 0.924 0.942 0.927 0.941 0.927
R2 Within 0.192 −0.033 0.256 0.008 0.248 0.001
R2 Within Adj. 0.094 −0.047 0.190 −0.003 0.181 −0.010
AIC 511.7 6686.6 505.2 6662.8 505.8 6666.6
BIC 555.9 7016.2 547.3 6988.1 547.9 6991.9
RMSE 16.99 109.70 16.31 107.48 16.40 107.86
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X X X X
FE: year X X X X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Public Expenditure (Total)

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Granular)

ADMINISTRATION_MISC_PC
 (1)   (2)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.050+ −0.050+
(0.024) (0.025)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.126 −0.123
(0.071) (0.070)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.007 0.005
(0.082) (0.085)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.517** 0.543**
(0.150) (0.142)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 1.512*
(0.642)
Total GDP (PC) 1.441*
(0.613)
Num.Obs. 534 534
R2 0.813 0.813
R2 Adj. 0.783 0.783
R2 Within −0.021 −0.021
R2 Within Adj. −0.032 −0.032
AIC 5218.5 5218.4
BIC 5543.8 5543.7
RMSE 27.80 27.79
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
COMMERCIAL_PC
 (1)   (2)   (3)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.028* −0.031* −0.031*
(0.009) (0.014) (0.014)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.000 −0.001 −0.001
(0.009) (0.009) (0.009)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.013 −0.011 −0.010
(0.011) (0.011) (0.011)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.096** 0.068*** 0.065***
(0.024) (0.013) (0.012)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) −0.167 −0.146
(0.129) (0.110)
Govt GDP (PC) 2.355
(1.960)
Total GDP (PC) −0.139
(0.109)
Num.Obs. 534 534 534
R2 0.761 0.761 0.761
R2 Adj. 0.722 0.722 0.722
R2 Within 0.009 0.008 0.008
R2 Within Adj. −0.004 −0.003 −0.003
AIC 3414.0 3412.2 3412.3
BIC 3743.5 3737.5 3737.6
RMSE 5.12 5.12 5.12
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X X
FE: year X X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001
PUBLIC_WELFARE_SERVICES_FACILITIES_PC
 (1)   (2)
Region_{NE}xEmp. Coal (FD) 0.084** 0.086**
(0.025) (0.026)
Region_{S}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.013 −0.015
(0.081) (0.079)
Region_{NC}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.332 −0.332
(0.321) (0.321)
Region_{W}xEmp. Coal (FD) −0.031 −0.036
(0.151) (0.136)
GDP Priv. Ind. (PC) 0.174
(0.615)
Total GDP (PC) 0.220
(0.566)
Num.Obs. 534 534
R2 0.966 0.966
R2 Adj. 0.960 0.960
R2 Within 0.089 0.091
R2 Within Adj. 0.079 0.081
AIC 4840.9 4839.7
BIC 5166.2 5165.1
RMSE 19.52 19.50
Std.Errors by: fips & year by: fips & year
FE: fips X X
FE: year X X
+ p < 0.1, * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001

Oil & Gas

Public Revenue

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Total)

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Granular)

[1] “No significant results!”

Extraction

Public Revenue

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Total)

[1] “No significant results!”

Public Expenditure (Granular)

[1] “No significant results!”